When can physical distancing be relaxed? A health production function approach for COVID-19 control policy



To assess if physical distancing measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic can be relaxed, one of the key indicators used is the reproduction number R. Many developing countries, however, have limited capacities to estimate R accurately. This study aims to demonstrate how health production function can be used to assess the state of COVID-19 transmission and to determine a risk-based relaxation policy.


The author employs a simple “bridge” between epidemiological models and production economics to establish the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases as a short-run total product function and to derive the corresponding marginal product, average product, and production elasticity. Three crucial dates defining the states of transmission, labelled red, yellow, and green zones, are determined. Relaxation policy is illogical in the “red zone” and is not recommended in the “yellow zone”. In the “green zone”, relaxation can be considered. The Bayesian probability of near term’s daily cases meeting a policy target is computed. The method is applied to France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and the US, and to Indonesia as an example of application in developing countries.


This study uses data from the WHO COVID-19 Dashboard, beginning from the first recording date for each country until February 28, 2021. As of June 30, 2020, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK had arrived at the “green zone” but with a high risk of transmission re-escalations. In the following weeks, their production elasticities were rising, giving a signal of accelerated transmissions. The signal was corroborated by these countries’ rising cases, making them leaving the “green zone” in the later months. By February 28, 2021, the UK had returned to the “green zone”, France, Germany, and Italy were still in the “yellow zone”, while the US reached the “green zone” at a very high number of cases. Despite being in the “red zone”, Indonesia relaxed its distancing measures, causing a sharp rise of cases.


Health production function can show the state of COVID-19 transmission. A rising production elasticity gives an early warning of transmission escalations. The elasticity is a useful parameter for risk-based relaxation policy.

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Lebih dari 3,9 Juta Hektar Lahan Hutan telah Tersertifikasi IFCC dan PEFC

Lebih dari 3,9 Juta Hektar Lahan Hutan telah Tersertifikasi IFCC dan PEFC

TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA - Lebih dari 3,9 juta hektar lahan hutan telah tersertifikasi Indonesian Forestry Certification Cooperation (IFCC) dan Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC). 

Jutaan hektar lahan hutan tersebut dikelola oleh 74 perusahaan yang mengantongi sertifikat IFCC.

Juga oleh 40 perusahaan lain yang memiliki sertifikat rantai suplai atau lacak balak PEFC.

"Pada 31 Maret 2021 sudah lebih dari 3,9 juta hektar hutan di Indonesia telah tersertifikasi IFCC atau PEFC. Itu sudah mencapai 74 perusahaan pengelola hutan, dan 40 perusahaan yang telah tersertifikasi PEFC rantai suplainya atau lacak balak," kata Regita Wirastri, Manager Marketing dan Komunikasi IFCC saat webinar, Kamis (27/5/2021).

IFCC adalah organisasi nirlaba yang didirikan di Indonesia pada 9 September 2011. 

Tujuan berdirinya IFCC untuk mendorong dan mengimprovisasi pengelolaan hutan lestari di Indonesia melalui penerapan sertifikasi kehutanan dalam rangka memenuhi Benchmark atau tolak ukur hutan lestari skema PEFC. 

Sementara PEFC menjadi skema pengelolaan hutan lestari yang bertaraf internasional. 

"Standar pengelolaan hutan lestari IFCC ini telah diendorse PEFC sejak tahun 2014," jelas Regita.

Dalam menyusun standar hutan lestari, IFCC bekerjasama dengan stakeholder atau para pemangku kepentingan. 

"Bekerjasama untuk menyusun prinsip, kriteria, dalam membangun skema pengelolaan hutan lestari. Oleh karena itu kenapa term kooperasi itu digunakan," kata Regita.

Pada tahun 2012 IFCC diterima sebagai PEFC National Governing Body untuk Indonesia. 

Kemudian pada 1 Oktober 2014, IFCC diendorse oleh PEFC, kemudian pengelolaan sertifikat pertama untuk hutan lestari yang menjadi isu.

"Oleh lembaga sertifikasi yang telah terakreditasi IFCC, itu diterbitkan pada April 2015," kata Regita.

Kemudian 2017 PEFC mengumumkan IFCC memenangkan the greatest increase in PEFC - certified forest area award in PEFC General Assembly in Helsinki.

Source: https://m.tribunnews.com/bisnis/2021/05/27/lebih-dari-39-juta-hektar-lahan-hutan-telah-tersertifikasi-ifcc-dan-pefc


Media News Bulletin from PEFC Asia Pacific May 2021

Regenerative Fashion: Sustainable, Innovative Apparel & Textiles
Regenerative fashion means garments manufactured from fibres produced through sustainable agriculture, or organic farming practices, can reverse climate change by replenishing the plants and the soil. On 27 April, the Innovation Forum Sustainable Apparel and Textiles Conference, discussed how apparel brands can adapt practices to deliver on growing stakeholder expectation. PEFC International Board member Eduardo Rojas Briales spoke on "Regenerative vs sustainable: How are standards for sustainable apparel and fashion evolving?" In highlighting the vital regenerative functions of forests, he said that wood and forest-based fibres are renewable raw materials, which can support the fashion industry in sourcing garments from regenerative sources. Read all about it.
Cheers! Beer Cans with PEFC-certified Cardboard Rings
Put a ring around this when you next go for a beer. Estrella Damm has moved way from plastic by producing beverage cans with rings made of 100% biodegradable, PEFC-certified cardboard. This has also been used to replace the plastic packaging around beverage can packs by the leading Spanish beverage producer, With these initiatives, Estrella Damm will save around 360 tons of plastic per year in favour of a natural, renewable and recyclable material. Recognised for its leading sustainability strategies, Estrella is committed to eliminate plastic from its products and replacing them with materials from sustainably managed forests. Cheers for more of this!
Protect the Planet: Buy Local & Certified Timber Goods
As Australian builders declare a climate and biodiversity emergency, material selection plays an all-important role in protecting the planet. In the latest Builders Declare webinar. Mark Thomson, acclaimed eco-architect and director of Responsible Wood, outlined the case for buying locally and supporting timber that is certified under a recognised forest certification scheme. He highlighted the importance of 3rd party validation in the building and development sectors. The Responsible Wood Forest Certification Scheme is one of some 39 national schemes endorsed by PEFC. Responsible Wood is also the national governing body for PEFC in Australia. Read more.
Making PEFC FOR-TRADE Practical for Smallholders
To present the project and initiate the dialogue with local stakeholders, PEFC and its partners in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, have held four national inception workshops since March for the PEFC FOR-TRADE programme.  Taking place in each of the four partner countries, some workshops were held with a physical and remote audience, while others took place completely remotely, respecting the national regulations. In a next step, national action plans will be implemented under the project scope, including training on PEFC endorsed national standards, and a pilot project to make national systems more practical for smallholder forest owners. There's more.
India Furniture Exporters Try Canadian Wood for Success
Vamani Overseas is one of many Indian manufacturers shifting its focus towards exporting finished products to western countries. Since many international markets require wood to be sustainably sourced, this presents further opportunities for British Columbia's certified forest products in India, as the country becomes a global furniture manufacturing hub. Successes such as this are an important factor in continuing to expand awareness of imported timber species across India. Through the ‘Try Canadian Wood’ programme, Forestry Innovation Investment (FII) continues to forge relationships with local manufacturers and grow knowledge around the wood's favourable properties within furniture applications. Go here for more.
Certified for Access to International Markets from Indonesia
A regional webinar last month focussed on the importance of managing forests sustainably to leverage the growth of PEFC certification and, at the same time, provided tips on how to access international markets and major projects. It was attended by more than 100 delegates in the region. Led by Darren Thomas of Double Helix Tracking Technologies, it was managed by AJA Europe - PT. AJA Sertifikasi IndonesiaIFCC KSK and PEFC International. Richard Laity of PEFC Southeast Asia pointed out the benefits of Chain of Custody certification in helping to meet customer expectations and legality requirements at home and aboard. It also meets private and public sector procurement requirements and provides traceability solutions for wood-based materials. Go here for the recording of the webinar.
Vietnam Trains for International & Local Certification Bodies
The online training course took place in Vietnam in April with enthusiastic participation from more than 60 participants, with 20 Certification Bodies (CBs), including international and national auditors/certifiers. During this event, experts from the Forest Certification Office (VFCO) and PEFC provided a lot of detailed information about the two latest versions of Sustainable Forest Management standards VFCS / PEFC FM and PEFC CoC2020.  At the same time, they came to understand more about difficulties faced by assessment units and market challenges in Vietnam. Read More.
Penguins Parade in Award Winning Timber Visitor Centre
The most-visited tourism destination of the Australian state of Victoria has a new award-winning visitor centre which uses certified timber to achieve a delicate balance between landscape and built form, and between people and wildlife habitat. Achieving this balance was a challenge facing Terroir Architects when designing the new Penguin Parade Visitor Centre on Victoria’s Phillip Island. Low carbon building materials were used throughout the centre’s construction, notably PEFC/Responsible Wood-certified laminated Victorian Ash hardwood used for the exposed beams. The choice of timber beams and plywood panelling, which are self-finished and offer a carefully selected colour and texture, were integral in achieving the centre’s robust appearance. Read all about it.
Capture the Heart of the Forest with your Camera
For the fifth time, PEFC is inviting professional and amateur photographers to submit their best forest photos, for the chance to become the 2021 PEFC Photographer of the Year. Colourful trees, forest landscapes, children playing, people working or animals living in the forest – share your photo and help us to escape to the wonderful world of forests in our imaginations! To enter your photo is simple, check out www.pefc.photo to see if there is a national contest in your country. Then head to Instagram and post your forest photo using the contest hashtag of your country – and that’s it, you’re done! The deadline for entries is 5 June – World Environment Day. There's more here.
PEFC Stars in First International Hybrid Studio Broadcast
A PEFC certified product was the star at the first book launch at Marina Bay Sands specially designed Hybrid Broadcast Studio, attended by 50 people in person and beamed to many hundreds more in 10 countries overseas. Special Guest and Speaker on the occasion was Genevieve Chua, CEO of OVOL, the company which supplied PEFC certified paper for the book, who also represents the Print and Media Association Singapore and is PEFC International's former Vice Chair and Board member. Author and publisher Ken Hickson said that he wanted the book to meet “clean and green” standards. This was achieved by sourcing suitable PEFC-certified paper from sustainably managed forests in Asia and using Times Printers, one of Singapore’s dedicated PEFC-certified printers. Read Floyd Cowan's report on Asian Journeys  
PEFC Issues Updated Guidance for Chain of Custody Audits
PEFC is very conscious that there are constraints imposed by the coronavirus pandemic which can have some impact on the certification and auditing processes around the world. Therefore guidance needs to be updated from time to time. This latest guidance - Version 8 - was released late last month (28 April). It enters into force and can be applied by certification bodies from the day of its publication and is applicable until PEFC Council revokes the guidance. Due to the spread of COVID-19 worldwide, travel and medical restrictions are affecting auditing activities. The main methods to ease the consequences of travel restrictions are the implementation of remote audits, and where this is not sufficient, the extension of time periods affecting issuing of the certificates. There's more here.

Earth Day 2021, IFCC Calls for the Importance of Sustainable Forests

Earth Day

Foto: (iStock)

Jakarta - Isu kelestarian hutan yang secara internasional disebut dengan sustainable forest management (SFM) ini semakin menjadi penentu bagaimana negara-negara di dunia berkompetisi dalam perekonomian global. Dilansir dari situs resmi PEFC, SFM akan menciptakan tiga hal, yaitu keadilan sosial, kelestarian lingkungan, dan kelayakan ekonomi.

Berdasarkan laporan dari World Resources Institute (WRI), deforestasi Indonesia mengalami puncaknya pada 2016 sebesar 0.78 juta hektar. Angka tersebut mengalami penurunan pada empat tahun ke belakang dengan masing-masing 0.66 juta hektar pada 2017, 0.55 juta hektar pada 2018, 0.35 juta hektar pada 2019, dan 0.31 juta hektar pada 2020.

Menurut laporan resmi yang dirilis oleh Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan (LHK), disebutkan bahwa laju deforestasi di tahun 2020 turun sebesar 75% dari 2018/2019.

Dikarenakan hal ini, Indonesia bersama Malaysia dinyatakan sebagai "bright spots of hope for forests", seperti diberitakan juga oleh the Guardian dan teh New York Times.

Pentingnya manajemen keberlanjutan hutan terhadap perekonomian ini disebabkan karena banyaknya korporasi besar di dunia yang mensyaratkan sertifikat PEFC (Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification). Sertifikasi ini menjadi ketentuan agar mereka mau membeli produk olahan hasil hutan, mulai dari kayu hingga kertas.

PEFC adalah lembaga non-profit internasional dan non-pemerintah yang mengeluarkan sertifikasi kehutanan. Lembaga ini berpusat di Jenewa, Swiss. Ketua umum Indonesian Forestry Certification Cooperation (IFCC) Dradjad H. Wibowo menyebut sejumlah perusahaan yang sudah memanfaatkan sertifikat PEFC antara lain Walmart, Samsung, Apple, Zara, Johnson & Johnson, LV, Nestle, dan P&G.

Pada awalnya, Indonesia sempat sangat terpuruk pada 2016 lalu karena industri produk olahan hasil hutannya diboikot oleh Disney, Mattel, Xerox, Woolworths, dan sebagainya. Oleh karena itu, sangat penting adanya hutan tanaman industri (HTI) demi kelangsungan agar korporasi besar di dunia mau kembali melirik pasar Indonesia.

Saat ini, di Indonesia terdapat 67 perusahaan HTI dengan luas lahan kira-kira 4 juta hektar dan sudah memperoleh sertifikat SFM (sustainable forest management) dari lembaga PEFC tadi. Hari Bumi 2021 yang jatuh bertepatan di hari ini kembali mengingatkan bahwa kelestarian hutan sangat membantu perekonomian Indonesia di panggung dunia.

"Setelah semakin banyak HTI yang berhasil mencapai SFM, dan semakin banyak pabrik bubur kertas dan kertas yang mendapatkan sertifikat, ternyata ekspor Indonesia naik kembali," kata Dradjad H. Wibowo yang juga Member PEFC Board, dalam Focus Group Discussion Rabu, 21 April 2021.

Menurut Dradjad yang juga ekonom senior INDEF itu peningkatan ekspor ini sejalan dengan penurunan laju deforestasi di tahun 2017-2020. Dia pun mendorong pemerintah, khususnya Kementerian Lingkungan Hidup dan Kehutanan, Kementerian Perindustrian, Kementerian Perdagangan, serta Kementerian Koperasi dan UKM agar semakin meningkatkan kinerja dalam mengelola kelestarian hutan serta industri pengolahan dan perdagangan produk olahan hutan lestari oleh para pelaku usaha.

"Perhutanan sosial bisa didorong agar mendapatkan sertifikat SFM, sehingga produknya bernilai tambah semakin tinggi," kata dia.

Dradjad juga menambahkan bahwa korporasi besar di Indonesia perlu sadar bahwa mereka tak bisa lagi lalai dari manajemen pengelolaan hutan atau SFM. Dia yakin bahwa di masa depan, korporasi besar akan ditinggalkan oleh pasar jika mengabaikan kelestarian hutan dan SFM.

"Trust me, sustainability pays," tutupnya.

Hutan lestari adalah kunci!

Source: https://www.detik.com/edu/detikpedia/d-5542312/hari-bumi-2021-ifcc-serukan-pentingnya-hutan-lestari